Is it possible to flatten-the-curve after the initial outbreak of Covid-19? A data-driven modeling analysis for Omicron pandemic in China (preprint)

In the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has become the predominant strain circulating worldwide. In China, enormous controversies exist regarding the dynamic zero tolerance (DZT) and totally no inventions (TNI) strategies for preventing the spread of the Omicron variant. Currently, China is gradually relaxing the COVID-19 measures from DZT level. In such situations, the flatten-the-curve (FTC) strategy, which decreases and maintains the low rate of infection to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system by adopting relaxed nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) after the initial outbreak, has been perceived as most appropriate and effective method to prevent the spread of the Omicron variant. Hence, we established a data-driven model of Omicron transmission based on the pandemic data of Macau, Hong Kong, and Singapore in 2022 to deduce the overall prevention effect throughout China. In the current immunity level without any NPI applied, more than 12.7 billion (including asymptomatic individuals) were infected with the Omicron variant within 90 days, but the daily new infections sharply declined; moreover, Omicron outbreak would result to 1.49 million deaths within 180 days. The application of FTC could decrease the deaths by 36.91% within 360 days. Age-stratified analyses showed that the NPI application among individuals aged >60 years would also result in 0.81 million deaths within 360 days, and the application of FTC strategy through treatment with anti-COVID drugs can reduce the number of deaths to 0.40 million. In a model of completed vaccination, the application of TNI strategy would also result in 0.56 million deaths and slightly decrease the infection numbers. The strict implementation of FTC policy combined with completed vaccination and drug use, which only resulted in 0.19 million deaths in an age-stratified model, will help end the pandemic within about 240 days. The pandemic would be terminated within a shorter period of time without resulting in a high fatality rate; therefore, the FTC policy could be strictly implemented through enhancement of immunity and drug use.

Risk spillovers in global financial markets: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis

This paper aims to comprehensively investigate the dynamics of short-, medium- and long-term risk spillovers across the major financial markets in the context of COVID-19. Our main empirical findings are as follows. First, we find that the deterioration of the COVID-19 pandemic raised the risk of stock, bond, crude oil, and foreign exchange markets sequentially in the short term. Second, from the perspective of the medium and long term, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered substantial risk spillovers across financial markets, which is also highly correlated with the degree of investor panic. Third, we show that different markets played different roles in terms of risk transmission during the pandemic. Specifically, the stock and crude oil markets acted more as risk senders, the gold and foreign exchange markets acted more as risk receivers, and the bond market served as a transfer station of risk. Finally, we find that containment and health responses can effectively mitigate risk spillovers across markets in the short term, while expansionary fiscal policy can reduce them more effectively in the medium and long term. Our findings have important implications for policymakers and investors who aim to mitigate the adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets.

Clinical symptoms and psychological changes of patients with COVID-19 in Jiangxi Province (preprint)

Objective The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence and differences in etiology, clinical manifestations, and psychological activity of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) among patients. Results We recruited 90 subjects, 30 were healthy controls, 30 were patients with moderate infection, and 30 were patients with severe/critical infections. No significant differences were noted in the sex ratio, mean age, body mass index, or blood type; however, the history of exposure of the patients with COVID-19 compared with healthy controls was noteworthy. The erythrocyte sedimentation rate, as well as the levels of C-reactive protein and serum amyloid A (SAA) were all increased. In terms of mental health, there were significant differences in the worry scores between severely and moderately infected patients and healthy controls. There was a significant difference in depression scores between patients with moderate infection and healthy hypertension, and there was also a significant difference in dream worry scores. Analysis of the Mini-Mental State Examination scores showed that for patients with moderate infection, the depression score was moderately and positively correlated with the dream anxiety score. For patients with severe infection, the anxiety score was positively correlated with the dream anxiety score, and the depression score was moderately and positively correlated with the dream anxiety score. Conclusion Patients with severe infection showed increased pain and sputum in the pharyngeal area compared with patients with moderate infection. Patients with blood type A may be more susceptible to COVID-19, and lymphopenia may indicate worsening of COVID-19.

Changes in the clinical characteristics of severe Corona Virus Disease 2019 in Jiangxi Province (preprint)

Backgrounds: To determine the differences in clinical manifestations and biomarker levels of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients, including common patients and severe (serious and critical) patients.Methods: A total of 89 COVID-19 patients were diagnosed and treated at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University. We clinically classified the patients and collected data. Findings: There was a higher proportion of confirmed cases in patients with type A blood (44.8%). There were no obvious differences in number of lung lobes involved in the lesion between the patients with or without a positive nucleic acid test (p>0.05).There were obvious differences in contact history (p<0.001), duration of symptoms (p=0.004), and respiratory rate (p=0.029) between the patients with or without a positive nucleic acid test. According to the results of the nucleic acid diagnosis test, there were no obvious differences in the number of lung lobes involved in the lesion and all items of routine blood, liver, and kidney function tests between the patients with or without positive nucleic acid tests (all p>0.05). Between the common patients and severe patients, there were obvious differences in age (p=0.006), duration of symptoms (p=0.001), diastolic blood pressure (p=0.046), lymphocyte count (p＜0.0001), neutrophil count (p=0.019), albumin (p=0.002), lactate dehydrogenase (p=0.007), calcium (p＜0.0001), C-reactive protein (CRP) (p=0.004), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (p=0.021), international standard ratio (p=0.020), and CD3 (p=0.001), CD3+CD4 (p=0.006), and CD3+CD8 (p=0.001) levels. In patients infected with SARS-COV-2, the number of lung lobes involved in the lesion were positively correlated with lymphocytes (R=0.261, p=0.044); the body mass index (BMI) values were positively correlated with the number of lung lobes involved in the lesion (R=0.320, P=0.034); the age (R=0.391, p<0.001) and respiratory rate (R=0.352, p=0.001) were positively correlated with neutrophil count; and the age (R=0.349, p=0.001) and the number of lung lobes involved in the lesion (R=0.422, p=0.001) were positively correlated with CRP.Conclusion: Patients with blood type A may be more susceptible to SARS-COV-2. The decrease in lymphocytes may indicate the aggravation of COVID-19, whereas the number of lung lobes involved in the lesion may not be a valid criterion for COVID-19 diagnosis.